1991 BA

Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid

1991 BA is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group that was first observed by Spacewatch on 18 January 1991, and passed within 160,000 km (100,000 mi) of Earth.[2][3] This is a little less than half the distance to the Moon. With a 5-hour observation arc the asteroid has a poorly constrained orbit and is considered lost. It could be a member of the Beta Taurids.[6]

Description

1991 BA is approximately 5 to 10 meters (15 to 30 ft) in diameter and is listed on the Sentry Risk Table.[4] It follows a highly eccentric (0.68), low-inclination (2.0°) orbit of 3.3 years duration, ranging between 0.71 and 3.7 AU from the Sun. 1991 BA was, at the time of its discovery, the smallest and closest confirmed asteroid outside of Earth's atmosphere.[5] 1991 BA is too faint to be observed except during close approaches to Earth and is considered lost.

Possible impact

The asteroid has a very short 5-hour observation arc that makes future predictions of its position unreliable. Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory use to show a 1 in 290,000 chance that the asteroid could impact Earth on 2023 January 18.[4] It is estimated that an impact would produce an upper atmosphere air burst equivalent to 16 kt TNT,[4] roughly equal to Nagasaki's Fat Man. The asteroid would appear as a bright fireball and fragment in the air burst into smaller pieces that would hit the ground at terminal velocity producing a meteorite strewn field. Impacts of objects this size are estimated to occur approximately once a year.[7] Asteroid 2008 TC3 was an object of similar size that was discovered less than a day before its impact on Earth on October 7, 2008 and produced a fireball and meteorite strewn field in the Sudan. The 18 January 2023 virtual impactor did not occur.

Virtual impactor[4]
Date Impact
probability
(1 in) 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		MPC[8]
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		Find_Orb
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2023-01-18 290000 3.9 AU (580 million km)[9] 3.9 AU (580 million km)[10] 2.4 AU (360 million km) 2.8 AU (420 million km)[11] ± 841 million km[9]

There is a 1 in a million chance of impacting Earth on 19 January 2114.[4]

References

  1. ^ a b c "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (1991 BA)" (1991-01-18 last obs.). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 2 August 2017.
  2. ^ a b "JPL Close-Approach Data: (1991 BA)" (last observation: 1991-01-18; arc: 1 day; uncertainty: 9). Retrieved 20 March 2012.
  3. ^ a b "1991 BA". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 2 August 2017.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 1991 BA". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 17 August 2011. Retrieved 10 March 2012.
  5. ^ a b Scotti, J. V.; Rabinowitz, D. L.; Marsden, B. G. (1991). "Near miss of the Earth by a small asteroid". Nature. 354: 287–289. Bibcode:1991Natur.354..287S. doi:10.1038/354287a0.
  6. ^ Peter Jenniskens Meteor Showers and their Parent Comets pg 463 fig 25.7
  7. ^ "Asteroid Fast Facts". NASA. Archived from the original on 26 May 2023.
  8. ^ "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 9 November 2022.
  9. ^ a b "Horizons Batch for 2023-01-18 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 9 November 2022. Retrieved 9 November 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#12/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-15 generates RNG_3sigma = 841846388 km for 2023-Jan-18.)
  10. ^ "2009JF1 Ephemerides for 18 January 2023". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 9 November 2022. Retrieved 9 November 2022.
  11. ^ "Find_Orb for 2023-01-18". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 9 November 2022. Retrieved 9 November 2021.

External links

  • IAUC 5172: 1991 BA; 4U 0115+63; 1990c – (Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams 1991 January 21)
  • 1991 BA at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
    • Ephemerides · Observation prediction · Orbital info · MOID · Proper elements · Observational info · Close approaches · Physical info · Orbit animation
  • 1991 BA at ESA–space situational awareness
    • Ephemerides · Observations · Orbit · Physical properties · Summary
  • 1991 BA at the JPL Small-Body Database Edit this at Wikidata
    • Close approach · Discovery · Ephemeris · Orbit diagram · Orbital elements · Physical parameters
Authority control databases Edit this at Wikidata
  • JPL SBDB
  • BA MPC